Posts

How the Russia Ukraine war will end

Image
Many have speculated scenarios for the Russian war against Ukraine to end, including by a negotiated ceasefire. Some in the west, for example Donald Trump, intend to threaten to cut off aid to Ukraine in order to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. Throughout the war, Ukraine has recaptured much of the territory that Russia initially seized. However, Russia has made clear that any negotiations would depend on Ukraine withdrawing from all illegally annexed oblasts, including territory that Ukraine liberated from Russian occupation. Another Russian condition for negotiations is that Ukraine abandon any desire to join the NATO alliance and instead become a neutral and demilitarised state. Although it is highly unlikely that Ukraine would agree to this, if hypothetically they did agree, it would only pause the war. Allowing Russia time to rebuild its military forces and launch another invasion in a few years’ time. If the West allows Russia to win and fully occupy Ukraine...
Post a Comment
Read more

Why the Ukrainian 2023 counter offensive failed

Image
In 2023 the Ukrainian armed forces launched a much-anticipated counter offensive which failed to live up to its expectations. In the beginning of 2023 Ukraine faced a difficult choice. If they didn’t advertise the counter offensive, they wouldn’t receive as much western aid and would therefore be unable to launch any counter offensive. If they did advertise the counter offensive, they would receive much more western aid and would therefore be able to launch a counter offensive. However, delays in receiving this aid would give the Russians more time to build their defensive lines which started construction at the end of 2022. These defensive lines consisted of anti-tank ditches, dragons’ teeth and trenches, interspersed with dense minefields. Most analysts, and the Russian military, expected the counteroffensive to attempt to cut the so-called land bridge to Crimea. Ukraine decided to split its assault along 3 directions, however even if we assume that Ukraine had launched...
Post a Comment
Read more

Russia Threatens Escalation

Image
Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the kremlin has threatened the west not to interfere with its plans. Russia threatened the west with if it sent weapons to Ukraine, but no World War 3. Russia threatened the west if it sent long range weapons such as ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, but no World War 3, so now Germany should send Taurus missiles. Russia threatened the west if it sent air defence systems such as Patriot to Ukraine, but no World War 3. Russia threatened the west if it sent tanks such as Challenger 2, Leopard 2, and Abrams to Ukraine, but no World War 3. Russia threatened NATO if it allowed Finland and Sweden to join that it will station nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad, something it already did in 2018, and have instead deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus, but still no World War 3. Until recently, no western nation has allowed strikes outside the internationally recognised territory of Ukraine with western weapons, so Ru...
Post a Comment
Read more

Field Fortifications In Ukraine

Image
Both Ukraine and Russia have built field fortifications on the territory of Ukraine, consisting of infantry trenches, barbed wire, anti-tank ditches, dragon’s teeth and minefields. A simple shoulder height trench allows soldiers to fire at the enemy when standing but only offers full protection against enemy fire when crouching. A head height trench offers full protection from enemy fire when standing but must have firing points without a protective parapet to allow soldiers to fire at the enemy. A better trench design has a firing step to allow soldiers to fire at the enemy but offers full protection against enemy fire when standing. However, no trench can offer full protection against indirect fire from artillery, or from the use of drones. To protect against the drone threat, simple trench covers can be used to hide troop positions. Trenches could also be slightly buried to offer superior protection however this is more the job of bunkers. An anti-tank ditch is simply ...
Post a Comment
Read more