How the Russia Ukraine war will end

Many have speculated scenarios for the Russian war against Ukraine to end, including by a negotiated ceasefire.

Some in the west, for example Donald Trump, intend to threaten to cut off aid to Ukraine in order to force Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.

Throughout the war, Ukraine has recaptured much of the territory that Russia initially seized.

However, Russia has made clear that any negotiations would depend on Ukraine withdrawing from all illegally annexed oblasts, including territory that Ukraine liberated from Russian occupation.

Another Russian condition for negotiations is that Ukraine abandon any desire to join the NATO alliance and instead become a neutral and demilitarised state.

Although it is highly unlikely that Ukraine would agree to this, if hypothetically they did agree, it would only pause the war.

Allowing Russia time to rebuild its military forces and launch another invasion in a few years’ time.

If the West allows Russia to win and fully occupy Ukraine, Russian forces would be deployed on the western boarders of Ukraine.

This would make it far more difficult for NATO to respond if Russian forces were to invade the Baltic states.

If the West commits to providing the necessary resources for Ukraine to win, liberating its territories and joining NATO.

Then it would free up significant NATO forces to respond to any Russian attempt to invade the Baltic states.

Ultimately, this war will only end in a Russian or Ukrainian victory, the West must decide which outcome it prefers.

 

Images and Information Credit:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Outline_of_Ukraine.svg

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Flag-map_of_Russia.svg

www.economist.com/europe/2024/01/01/a-new-years-interview-with-volodymr-zelensky

www.politico.com/story/2015/12/trump-vladimir-putin-praise-216892

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_disputed_regions.svg

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NATO_32_Members.png

commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_map_of_Ukraine_with_Russian-occupied_territories_omitted.svg

commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_map_of_Russia_(%2Bclaims).svg

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-1-—-military-strategic-financial-implications-russian

www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-2-—-military-threat-and-beyond

understandingwar.org/backgrounder/america’s-stark-choice-ukraine-and-cost-letting-russia-win

commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lesser_Coat_of_Arms_of_Ukraine.svg

tass.com/politics/1803487

tass.com/politics/1803657

www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-says-he-wont-quit-nato-if-europe-pays-its-way/

www.defenceconnect.com.au/geopolitics-and-policy/13600-ukraine-will-settle-and-nato-will-pay-for-us-protection-says-trump

www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine

www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/29/ukraine-military-aid-american-economy-boost/

www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/11/trump-ukraine-war-viktor-orban

euromaidanpress.com/2024/07/08/trumps-peace-plan-is-a-blueprint-for-russian-victory-over-ukraine-and-west/

www.rferl.org/a/orban-hungary-trump-ukraine-war-funding-cut/32856909.html

english.nv.ua/nation/former-us-president-trump-considers-new-peace-plan-for-ukraine-and-russia-50429932.html

www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-describes-how-he-could-solve-russia-ukraine-conflict-24-hours

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-ukraine-russia-peace-talks-b2568417.html

www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-ukraine-russia-war-threatens-cut-aid-election-2024/

kyivindependent.com/trump-threatens-to-cut-off-aid-to-ukraine-prior-to-taking-white-house-as-president-elect/

www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/06/16/7461024/

carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/06/ukraine-public-opinion-russia-war?lang=en

carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/files/Carnegie_survey_Ukraine_war_Ukrainian_public_opinion_March_2024.pdf

tass.com/politics/1846945

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