Should Trump Help Ukraine?

Donald Trump, the republican presidential candidate, has been critical of further aid to Ukraine, insisting he can end the war in 24 hours if made president. I have explored why negotiating with Russia may not be possible in my previous video, Putin wants victory, not peace.

Contrary to what some may say, the United States has become such a wealthy and powerful nation because of its cooperation and trade with its allies.

Ukraine has been able to repel much of Russia’s invasion so far however, as aid from the United States has been stalled in congress for months, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine to maintain its defences.

So far, the United States has allocated just over 74 billion dollars’ worth of aid to Ukraine, with a significant emphasis on military aid.

The vast majority of the military aid goes to the US military and US defence contractors to support US jobs, as weapons are taken from existing stockpiles or bought from US companies, to be sent to Ukraine, new and better weapons are bought from US companies to refill US stockpiles.

Included in the Senate appropriations package is 49 billion dollars which will be invested in the US defence industrial base.

Many states have already benefited by hundreds of millions of dollars or more from this investment.

For just 1 percent of the US federal budget, Russia, one of the biggest adversaries of the United States, has had its economy and military capability devastated.

Let’s assume that the United States and its allies abandon Ukraine and allow the Russians to occupy all of its territory.

This would likely embolden Putin, who aspires to rebuild the Russian empire, after rebuilding his forces, to attack other countries, such as the Baltic states.

Being a member of NATO, the US would be obliged, under article 5 of the NATO treaty, to respond as if its own territory had been attacked.

Resulting in US troops being part of a NATO coalition to liberate the Baltic states, putting US troops in direct combat with Russian troops.

Donald trump is among a number of US presidents who have criticised the lack of defence spending of other NATO allies, however many states are projected to hit the guideline of at least 2 percent of GDP for defence next year, and almost all countries bordering Russia already meet this guideline.

Now let’s assume that the United States leaves NATO.

And a large war breaks out in Europe.

Firstly, the United States would need to withdraw its nuclear weapons from Europe as the Russians would consider them to be legitimate targets.

And should a small tactical nuclear war break out in Europe with the United Kingdom and France against Russia, Toxic, Radioactive ash would be thrown into the atmosphere and encircle the globe, as shown on this slide of a simulation of an India-Pakistan nuclear war using roughly 100 Hiroshima sized warheads, this would devastate the United States along with the rest of the world.

Secondly, in a conventional war in Europe, if the United States decided to help Europe, it would likely cost significantly more than helping Ukraine now as lend lease during World War 2 cost the equivalent of over 860 billion dollars in today’s money.

Thirdly, even if the United States remained completely neutral, it would still cause significant damage to trade between the US and Europe, which currently stands at over a trillion dollars per year and over 5 trillion dollars in mutual investment.

Fourthly, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are all major allies who work together to undermine the rules-based world order, allowing Ukraine to fall to the Russians may encourage further attacks on US allies such as Israel, South Korea and Taiwan.

By helping Ukraine to defend itself, the United States and its allies can deter future acts of aggression by unfriendly states and minimise the risk of an even larger war.

The United States is a great and powerful nation which can do many things at once, from securing its own borders to helping its allies secure theirs.

 

Information and Images credit:

Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/trump-on-the-stump-idUSRTX1PR40/

Government of Ukraine - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Ukraine.svg

Noahnmf - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_official_allies_and_adversaries.svg

Viewsridge - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

Council on Foreign Relations - https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts

Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty - https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-aid-breakdown-timeline/32822804.html

US Department of Defence, via Ukrainska Pravda - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/30/7430980/

Institute for the Study of War - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-1-%E2%80%94-military-strategic-financial-implications-russian

Institute for the Study of War - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-2-%E2%80%94-military-threat-and-beyond

Alketii/Janitoalevic - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NATO_members_(blue).svg

BBC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-44717074

Visual Capitalist - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-meet-natos-spending-target/

Hasancelikbilek35 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NATO_32_Members.png

Federation of American Scientists - https://fas.org/publication/steadfast-noon-exercise-and-nuclear-modernization/

Nuclear Famine - https://nuclearfamine.org/war-consequences/5-million-tons-of-smoke-created-by-100-hiroshima-size-nuclear-weapons/

^ Using Ezgif - https://ezgif.com/split/ezgif-1-e28aa3dc3f.gif < link expired

Collin77 - https://infogram.com/lend-lease-policy-1gg4qpz1n71lm1y

Calculator.net - https://www.calculator.net/inflation-calculator.html?cstartingamount1=50%2C000%2C000%2C000&cinmonth1=13&cinyear1=1945&coutmonth1=2&coutyear1=2024&calctype=1&x=Calculate#uscpi

Ssolbergj - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:European_Union_United_States_Locator.svg

Office of the United States Trade Representative - https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union

American Enterprise Institute - https://www.aei.org/research-products/one-pager/coalition-against-democracy/

DrRandomFactor - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_map_of_the_United_States_(All_50_States).png

ABC News - https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/analysis-amid-noise-donald-trump-uniting-republican-party/story?id=37329289

Newsweek - https://www.newsweek.com/putin-nuclear-weapons-war-leaked-fsb-letters-1762233

AFP via CNN - https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/31/china/china-xi-national-security-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html

AP via Business Insider - https://www.businessinsider.com/kim-jong-un-reportedly-wants-talks-scared-of-us-strike-2018-2

Asharq Al-Awsat - https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/1325736/khamenei%E2%80%99s-new-poem-pure-wine-and-deadly-poison

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