Should Trump Help Ukraine?
Donald Trump, the republican presidential candidate, has
been critical of further aid to Ukraine, insisting he can end the war in 24
hours if made president. I have explored why negotiating with Russia may not be
possible in my previous video, Putin wants victory, not peace.
Contrary to what some may say, the United States has become
such a wealthy and powerful nation because of its cooperation and trade with
its allies.
Ukraine has been able to repel much of Russia’s invasion so
far however, as aid from the United States has been stalled in congress for
months, it is becoming increasingly difficult for Ukraine to maintain its
defences.
So far, the United States has allocated just over 74 billion
dollars’ worth of aid to Ukraine, with a significant emphasis on military aid.
The vast majority of the military aid goes to the US
military and US defence contractors to support US jobs, as weapons are taken
from existing stockpiles or bought from US companies, to be sent to Ukraine,
new and better weapons are bought from US companies to refill US stockpiles.
Included in the Senate appropriations package is 49 billion
dollars which will be invested in the US defence industrial base.
Many states have already benefited by hundreds of millions
of dollars or more from this investment.
For just 1 percent of the US federal budget, Russia, one of
the biggest adversaries of the United States, has had its economy and military
capability devastated.
Let’s assume that the United States and its allies abandon
Ukraine and allow the Russians to occupy all of its territory.
This would likely embolden Putin, who aspires to rebuild the
Russian empire, after rebuilding his forces, to attack other countries, such as
the Baltic states.
Being a member of NATO, the US would be obliged, under
article 5 of the NATO treaty, to respond as if its own territory had been
attacked.
Resulting in US troops being part of a NATO coalition to
liberate the Baltic states, putting US troops in direct combat with Russian
troops.
Donald trump is among a number of US presidents who have
criticised the lack of defence spending of other NATO allies, however many
states are projected to hit the guideline of at least 2 percent of GDP for
defence next year, and almost all countries bordering Russia already meet this
guideline.
Now let’s assume that the United States leaves NATO.
And a large war breaks out in Europe.
Firstly, the United States would need to withdraw its
nuclear weapons from Europe as the Russians would consider them to be
legitimate targets.
And should a small tactical nuclear war break out in Europe
with the United Kingdom and France against Russia, Toxic, Radioactive ash would
be thrown into the atmosphere and encircle the globe, as shown on this slide of
a simulation of an India-Pakistan nuclear war using roughly 100 Hiroshima sized
warheads, this would devastate the United States along with the rest of the
world.
Secondly, in a conventional war in Europe, if the United
States decided to help Europe, it would likely cost significantly more than
helping Ukraine now as lend lease during World War 2 cost the equivalent of
over 860 billion dollars in today’s money.
Thirdly, even if the United States remained completely
neutral, it would still cause significant damage to trade between the US and
Europe, which currently stands at over a trillion dollars per year and over 5 trillion
dollars in mutual investment.
Fourthly, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran are all major
allies who work together to undermine the rules-based world order, allowing
Ukraine to fall to the Russians may encourage further attacks on US allies such
as Israel, South Korea and Taiwan.
By helping Ukraine to defend itself, the United States and
its allies can deter future acts of aggression by unfriendly states and
minimise the risk of an even larger war.
The United States is a great and powerful nation which can
do many things at once, from securing its own borders to helping its allies
secure theirs.
Information and Images credit:
Reuters - https://www.reuters.com/news/picture/trump-on-the-stump-idUSRTX1PR40/
Government of Ukraine - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_of_Ukraine.svg
Noahnmf - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:US_official_allies_and_adversaries.svg
Viewsridge - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg
Council on Foreign Relations - https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts
Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty - https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-aid-breakdown-timeline/32822804.html
US Department of Defence, via Ukrainska Pravda - https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/11/30/7430980/
Institute for the Study of War - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-1-%E2%80%94-military-strategic-financial-implications-russian
Institute for the Study of War - https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-2-%E2%80%94-military-threat-and-beyond
Alketii/Janitoalevic - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NATO_members_(blue).svg
BBC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-44717074
Visual Capitalist - https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-countries-meet-natos-spending-target/
Hasancelikbilek35 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NATO_32_Members.png
Federation of American Scientists - https://fas.org/publication/steadfast-noon-exercise-and-nuclear-modernization/
Nuclear Famine - https://nuclearfamine.org/war-consequences/5-million-tons-of-smoke-created-by-100-hiroshima-size-nuclear-weapons/
^ Using Ezgif - https://ezgif.com/split/ezgif-1-e28aa3dc3f.gif
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Collin77 - https://infogram.com/lend-lease-policy-1gg4qpz1n71lm1y
Ssolbergj - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:European_Union_United_States_Locator.svg
Office of the United States Trade Representative - https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
American Enterprise Institute - https://www.aei.org/research-products/one-pager/coalition-against-democracy/
DrRandomFactor - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_map_of_the_United_States_(All_50_States).png
Newsweek - https://www.newsweek.com/putin-nuclear-weapons-war-leaked-fsb-letters-1762233
AFP via CNN - https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/31/china/china-xi-national-security-meeting-intl-hnk/index.html
AP via Business Insider - https://www.businessinsider.com/kim-jong-un-reportedly-wants-talks-scared-of-us-strike-2018-2
Asharq Al-Awsat - https://english.aawsat.com/home/article/1325736/khamenei%E2%80%99s-new-poem-pure-wine-and-deadly-poison
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