Should Ukraine Negotiate?

Many have called on Ukraine to negotiate a peace deal with Russia, however, let’s explore why this may not currently be possible.

Throughout its history, Russia has tried to expand its boarder westward to form a buffer against European powers.

During the Soviet Union, this buffer extended all the way to east Germany.

However, when the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia lost its buffer, and instead it tried to prevent its newly independent, neighbouring states from joining western institutions.

In February 2014, when Ukraine sought closer ties with the European union.

Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and heavily backed a separatist movement in the Donbass, beginning the Russo Ukrainian war.

In February 2022, when Ukraine sought NATO membership.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, seeking to bring Ukraine under its control.

In September 2022, Russia annexed Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts in Ukraine, without even controlling all of this territory.

Now, despite the frontlines boiling every day, both sides appear to have reached somewhat of a stalemate.

Russia has stated that it will not consider negotiating until its objectives have been met, one objective is the full control of all 5 illegally annexed Ukrainian oblasts, however this may not be enough for Russia as Putin has claimed that Odessa is a Russian city, and that Ukraine is an artificial state.

Another goal is the “demilitarisation” of Ukraine, essentially wanting to impose strict limits on the size of the Ukrainian military and ensuring that Ukraine remains a neutral state.

This essentially means that Russia could simply rebuild its military and finish the invasion against a weakened Ukraine in a few years’ time.

Therefore, Russia would never agree to allowing Ukraine to join NATO which means that the current conflict would simply resume in a few years’ time.

Another goal is the so called “denazification” of Ukraine, which falsely accuses Ukraine of being a Nazi state.

In reality there is only a very small minority of people who support nazi ideologies in most countries including both Ukraine and Russia.

All talk of negotiations also assumes that Russia itself wants to negotiate, however Russian president Putin told Chinese President Xi, in late 2023, that Russia would fight for at least 5 years.

In addition, German newspaper BILD reported that Russia has ambitions to take Ukrainian territory into 2026, showing that the Kremlin has no intention of good faith peace negotiations.

If the west abandons Ukraine and allows Russia to win then Russia may become emboldened and attack the Baltics, both from its own territory and through Belarus, and using Kaliningrad to close the SUWALKI gap.

This would trigger a NATO response to liberate the Baltic states with direct combat between NATO and Russian forces, potentially risking a tactical nuclear exchange.

Only by forcing Russia out of Ukraine through aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia can this risk be avoided; therefore, the west should transition their economies to a war footing to supply Ukraine with the resources it needs to liberate its territories.

So, should Ukraine negotiate? Not until the Ukrainian people are willing to do so, on their terms, from a position of strength, to create a peace that will actually last.

Information and Images Credit:

Economist - https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/01/01/a-new-years-interview-with-volodymr-zelensky

Associated Press (Image) via Politico - https://www.politico.com/story/2015/12/trump-vladimir-putin-praise-216892

Kamran.nef - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine-Flagmap.svg

Aivazovsky - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag-map_of_Russia.svg

Matritum - https://www.deviantart.com/matritum/art/Russian-Empire-in-Europe-999142934

Рагин1987 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Eastern_bloc.png

TUBS - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Russia_in_Europe_(-rivers_-mini_map).svg

Glentamara - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:EU2004-2013.svg

Rr016 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Russo-Ukraine_Conflict_%282014-present%29.svg

Jordi (9^th October 2022 version) - https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?title=File:History_of_NATO_enlargement.svg&offset=&limit=20

Gaeilge181 - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine._New_Version.svg