Nuclear War Scenarios

Nuclear war is an existential risk that looms over us, the consequences of which could potentially wipe out most of the human race.

For this video I will be focusing on scenarios between the United States of America and the Russian Federation, but first we need to know what strategic weapons each side has at the ready on a day-to-day basis, starting with the United States.

400 warheads on single warhead LGM-30G Minuteman III missiles in silos,

Around 1000 warheads deployed on submarines carrying 20 UGM-133A Trident II D5/LE missiles each, with between 8 to 10 at sea at any one time,

46 nuclear capable B52s,

And 20 nuclear capable B2s however about 50 bombers in total are considered deployed at any one time,

In summary, The US has a large number of single warhead missiles in silos that require an even larger number of warheads to destroy, a large number of survivable warheads at sea at any time and a reasonably sized bomber force. High alert status enhances the survivability of both land and air legs of the triad.

Russia has 170 warheads deployed on 34 RS 20 Voevoda missiles carrying 5 warheads each, scheduled to be replaced by the RS 28 Sarmat,

7 warheads on Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles deployed from 7 RS 18 missiles, scheduled to be replaced by the RS 28 Sarmat,

78 warheads deployed on single warhead RS 12 Topol M missiles deployed from 60 silos and 18 mobile launchers.

579 warheads on RS 24 Yars missiles carrying 3 warheads each deployed from 22 silos and 171 mobile launchers.

The RS 28 Sarmat missile capable of carrying 10 heavy warheads or multiple Avangard hypersonic glide vehicles is in development and due to be deployed in 2024,

256 warheads deployed on 4 submarines carrying 16 RSM-54 (Sineva/Layner) missiles each, with a variable number at sea at any one time,

384 warheads deployed on 6 submarines carrying 16 RSM-56 (Bulava) missiles each, with a variable number at sea at any one time,

55 nuclear capable TU 95 bombers,

And 13 nuclear capable TU 160 bombers, however about 55 bombers in total are considered deployed at any one time,

In summary, Russia has a Relatively large number of multiple warhead missiles in silos that require a smaller number of warheads to destroy, a large number of multiple warhead missiles on mobile launchers that can only be considered survivable when dispersed, a large number of warheads on submarines with a limited at sea rate and a reasonably sized bomber force. High alert status is essential for the survivability of all 3 legs of the triad.

Considering a strategic exchange between the US and Russia,

If Russia launched a first strike against the United States,

Or the United States launched a first strike against Russia,

Due to the survivability of at least a proportion of both sides nuclear arsenals, especially when taking high alert rates into account, both sides would be capable of destroying each other in an exchange and therefore neither side is likely to launch a deliberate first strike.

If, however, the one side believed itself to be under attack, for example, the US believing Russia had launched a nuclear strike,

The US may launch a pre-emptive retaliation against Russia, who would in turn retaliate against the United States and both sides would be destroyed. Fortunately, this is unlikely due to the high survivability of the submarine force and the large number of warheads required to destroy all US missile silos, the United States may be able to wait long enough to see if any nuclear explosions occur on its territory before responding, thus averting a nuclear exchange.

If Russia believed that the United States had launched a nuclear strike,

Russia may launch a pre-emptive retaliation against the United States, who would in turn retaliate against the Russia and both sides would be destroyed. Unfortunately, due to the lower survivability of the Russian forces, even when on high alert, this may make Russia feel as though it cannot wait to see if the attack is real or not and initiate a nuclear exchange. That being said the USSR had a policy of waiting to see if an attack was real before responding so hopefully Russia does too.

Despite the mutual suspicion between the two, it is still unlikely that a nuclear exchange would occur either on purpose or by accident because neither side believes the other would be insane enough to initiate a suicidal nuclear exchange. However, the possibility of a tactical nuclear exchange escalating into a full-scale strategic exchange remains a possibility.

Considering the Russian invasion of Ukraine, if the west abandons Ukraine and allows Russia to win then Russia may become emboldened,

And attack the Baltics, both from its own territory and through Belarus, and using Kaliningrad to close the SUWALKI gap.

This would trigger a NATO response to liberate the Baltic states and bring the risk of a tactical nuclear exchange far closer.

Only by forcing Russia out of Ukraine through aid to Ukraine and sanctions on Russia can this risk be avoided.

Nuclear Forces Data from:

Hans M. Kristensen & Matt Korda (2023) United States nuclear weapons, 2023, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 79:1, 28-52, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2022.2156686 - https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2022.2156686

Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda & Eliana Reynolds (2023) Russian nuclear weapons, 2023, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 79:3, 174-199, DOI: 10.1080/00963402.2023.2202542 – https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00963402.2023.2202542

https://russianforces.org/blog/2019/04/does_russia_have_a_launch-on-w.shtml

Images Credit

National Nuclear Security Administration - https://cdn.planetdeadly.com/wp-content/uploads/massive-nuclear-explosion.jpg

DrRandomFactor - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag_map_of_the_United_States_%28All_50_States%29.png

Aivazovsky - https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Flag-map_of_Russia.svg

Joe Davila USAF - https://www.airforce-technology.com/projects/boeing-lgm-30-minuteman-iii-icbm/?cf-view

Lockheed Martin - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/99/Trident_II_missile_image.jpg

Airman 1st Class Victor J. Caputo USAF - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/16/B-52_Stratofortress_assigned_to_the_307th_Bomb_Wing_%28cropped%29.jpg

Master Sgt. Russell Scalf - https://www.af.mil/News/Photos/igphoto/2002864042/mediaid/5476110/

ISC Kosmotras - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/47/Dnepr_rocket_lift-off_1.jpg

Russian MoD - https://tass.com/defense/1028303

Russian MoD - https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/ss-27/